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<text id=90TT3133>
<title>
Nov. 19, 1990: Handicapping The War
</title>
<history>
TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1990
Nov. 19, 1990 The Untouchables
</history>
<article>
<source>Time Magazine</source>
<hdr>
GRAPEVINE, Page 29
Handicapping the War
</hdr>
<body>
<p>By PAUL GRAY/Reported by David E. Thigpen
</p>
<p> Speculation about when the U.S. and its allies will move
against Saddam Hussein is now rife, and hardly idle. Financial
markets have been rising and falling on nearly every clue and
rumor. The most discussed potential timetables:
</p>
<p> NOVEMBER
</p>
<p> U.S. elections are over. There will be nighttime Kuwaiti
high tides and little moonlight at mid-month, favorable
conditions for an invasion. President Bush's promised
Thanksgiving visit could be a trick to lull Saddam into
complacency.
</p>
<p> DECEMBER
</p>
<p> Not especially propitious. For one thing, there is the p.r.
problem of launching a war in the holiday season, though the
U.S. went into Panama Dec. 20. For another, some 150,000
additional U.S. troops will not be in place until...
</p>
<p> JANUARY
</p>
<p> A lot of smart money is on this month. Top officials in the
U.S. and French governments, among others, are already saying
that if anything happens it is likely to happen then. Patience
with the U.N. trade embargo against Iraq may be wearing thin,
and the armed alliance in Saudi Arabia could be showing rifts.
Action may be necessary to stave off dissolution.
</p>
<p> BEYOND
</p>
<p> The picture here, as well as the weather in the Persian
Gulf, turns cloudy. Air strikes become more difficult. Spring
will bring Easter and the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, and
several other reasons for everyone to do nothing. If the status
quo survives until then, all bets are off.
</p>
</body>
</article>
</text>